The Twelve-Year Pattern — Graph and Tests
- Offer (not accepted)
- Registration in another name
- 11–13 years after the offer
- Line outside the band
- 12-year clock (darker: final 2 years)
- Other landholder or authority moves
The test results
What supports it
2 of 3 lines
L1 is 12.2 years and L2 about 11.5 years, both inside 12 ± 1. If each registration had fallen at a random date before December 1988, that would happen about 2% of the time (p ≈ 0.019).
What cuts against it
No 12-year rhythm
L3 is 8.3 years. Across all 25 landholder and authority moves, the strongest rhythm is 16 years, not 12, and even that is weak (p ≈ 0.46).
More on the tests
Measured from other starting points, L3 is 13.2 years (from the 1969 conveyance to the BP pension trust) or 20.2 years (from the 1962 possession order). Choosing a starting point after seeing the pattern weakens the test, so the 1974 letters are kept as L3's anchor.
Twelve years ranks 63 of 241 periods tested between 6 and 30 years. Three lines is a very small sample, and the lines were picked after the pattern was noticed.
Clocks: 6 of 24 moves fall in the final two years of an open twelve-year clock, against about 3.8 by chance (p ≈ 0.19). That is suggestive at most.
Method: dates from the curated chronology; the 1958/59 offer is treated as the whole two-year span; 20,000 random trials with a fixed seed. Some deeds and plans are not held, so dates rest on the records linked below.
The three lines
- L1 offer2 Feb 1949 — Surrender and re-grant to Frederick Buckler, which would have made the occupation permissive; the occupancy step was not accepted. Evidence: EV-0080
- L1 registration29 Mar 1961 — Woodland deed between Western Ground Rents Ltd, South Western Brick & Tile and Cardiff Corporation; the land later appears under title WA735527. Evidence: EV-0040 EV-0169
- L2 offer1958/59 — Tenancy offer for the remaining house and garden, not accepted. Evidence: EV-0039
- L2 registration16 Jun 1970 — Village green VG41 registered. Evidence: EV-0044
- L3 offer31 Oct 1974 — Two licence letters offering rent-free occupancy. The 1987 judgment records that they were never expressly accepted or rejected. Evidence: EV-0050 EV-0080
- L3 registration23 Feb 1983 — BP Properties Ltd applies to register the farmhouse and garden (title WA240304). Evidence: EV-0066 EV-0063
The twelve-year clocks
Twelve years is the period to recover land, and to act on a judgment, under the Limitation Act 1939 (and 1980).
- C1Jun 1928 → 1940 — Last rent paid for the house parcel; twelve years to recover land (Limitation Act 1939 s.4(3); 1980 s.15). Evidence: EV-0016
- C210 Oct 1952 → 1964 — The agents write that they will not proceed with the letting. Evidence: EV-0080
- C34 Jul 1955 → 1967 — Possession taken of all parts except the farmhouse and garden. Evidence: EV-0032 EV-0034
- C411 Dec 1962 → 1974 — Cardiff County Court possession order; twelve years for an action on a judgment (Limitation Act 1939 s.2(4)). The 1974 leave to enforce and the licence letters fall in its last months. Evidence: EV-0041
- C531 Oct 1974 → 1986 — The 1974 licence letters. Evidence: EV-0050
Status
Our reading of the record, not a finding of any court. Each date is open to correction against the original deed, plan or register; where a record is not held, it is listed in the missing records catalogue.